Posts Tagged ‘2011 WR Rankings’

The Big Board: WRs (PPR)

QB | RB | RB (PPR) | WR | WR (PPR) | TE | TE (PPR)

Tier#NameTmSOS20102-yr AvgComments
11Andre JohnsonHOU1 (+0)19.719.6no risk, assuming he stays healthy
12Roddy WhiteATL2 (+8)19.618.1Jones' arrival means fewer but better targets
13Hakeem NicksNYG-2 (-10)19.215.4wickedly productive when healthy
14Calvin JohnsonDET-7 (+0)17.616.0Stafford's shoulder will be key
25Larry FitzgeraldARI0 (-4)15.016.4assuming he gets a decent QB
26Mike WallacePIT9 (+13)15.612.7love him in the 2nd round, great schedule
27Reggie WayneIND10 (+1)17.717.8on the decline, but target monster
38Greg JenningsGB-3 (-5)17.214.9a little overrated w/Finley back, tough sched.
39Vincent JacksonSD-5 (-13)11.613.8was WR10 in 2009, in contract year
310DeSean JacksonPHI2 (-7)14.615.8will have his ups and downs
311Dwayne BoweKC-9 (-10)17.414.6schedule much tougher
312Austin CollieIND10 (+1)19.014.8high risk, high reward
313Wes WelkerNE-10 (+3)14.217.3solid if unspectacular in non-PPR leagues
414Steve JohnsonBUF-4 (+1)15.68.1situation unchanged
415Mike A. WilliamsTB3 (+0)14.214.2low catch %, but TB's clear WR1
416Jeremy MaclinPHI2 (-7)14.412.3steady, TD regression likely
417Miles AustinDAL1 (+2)14.415.9Bryant's targets a concern
418Brandon MarshallMIA-4 (+1)14.716.6should bounce back in TD dept
419Brandon LloydDEN-6 (-4)17.913.9DEN will pass less in 2011, schedule tougher
420Santonio HolmesNYJ-3 (-3)13.714.2should be Jets' WR1
421Percy HarvinMIN-5 (+1)14.613.6who will QB the Vikings?
522Dez BryantDAL1 (+2)11.411.4lot of upside here
523Marques ColstonNO5 (+0)15.214.9knee is a growing concern
524Sidney RiceMIN-5 (+1)9.512.9who will QB the Vikings?
525Anquan BoldinBAL4 (+5)11.913.2wrong side of 30, but still BAL's WR1
526A.J. GreenCIN4 (+10)--can Dalton get it to him?
627Pierre GarconIND10 (+1)13.011.84th option in pass-offense, big upside
628Mike ThomasJAX4 (-2)11.59.6will be Jags' WR1 for now
629Johnny KnoxCHI-3 (+2)11.19.8CHI's WR1 for now
630Mario ManninghamNYG-2 (-10)13.012.6if Smith's not healthy, watch out
631Davone BessMIA-4 (+1)11.911.1underappreciated
632Santana Moss--15.013.1where will he land?
633Steve L. Smith--8.211.0where will he land?
634Jordy NelsonGB-3 (-5)7.26.1if WR2, move him up a few slots
635Kenny BrittTEN0 (-2)14.511.3million-dollar talent w/ten cent head
636Danny AmendolaSTL2 (-2)11.38.5better in PPR leagues
637Mike WilliamsSEA2 (+4)10.910.9reportedly staying in shape
638Deion BranchNE-10 (+3)11.99.5great value in middle rounds
639Lance MooreNO5 (+0)11.98.9upside if Colston struggles
740Terrell Owens--16.013.6where will he land?
741Michael CrabtreeSF5 (+8)10.310.7not working out with team
742Julio JonesATL2 (+8)--ATL needs to throw more
743Steve SmithNYG-2 (-10)13.215.1how is that knee? could be a free agent
744Jacoby FordOAK-3 (-8)7.07.0nice WR4 in leagues that reward return TDs
745Chad Ochocinco--12.413.5where will he land?
746Greg LittleCLE5 (+9)--WR1 in CLE?
747Mark ClaytonSTL2 (-2)13.210.1knees are a concern, crowded STL WR corps
748Anthony ArmstrongWAS-2 (-4)9.99.9WR1 in WAS?
849Braylon Edwards--11.610.1hands were better last year
850Derrick MasonBAL4 (+5)11.512.5the ageless one
851Hines WardPIT9 (+13)10.312.9big decline in production in 2010
852Jerome SimpsonCIN4 (+10)13.213.2Green killed his upside
853Josh MorganSF5 (+8)8.08.0could capitalize if Crabtree doesn't step up
854Steve BreastonARI0 (-4)9.99.9QB?
855Robert MeachemNO5 (+0)8.710.0upside, just like every year
856Malcom FloydSD-5 (-13)13.210.6will go back to 3rd option in pass offense
857Mike Sims-Walker--10.111.4free agent
858Earl BennettCHI-3 (+2)8.68.6possession guy for CHI
859Lee EvansBUF-4 (+1)9.19.2no longer the WR1 in BUF
860Ben ObomanuSEA2 (+4)7.03.8could be the WR2 in SEA
861Arrelious BennTB3 (+0)5.35.3WR2 in TB?
862Roscoe ParrishBUF-4 (+1)10.95.7possession guy, limited upside
963Randy MossTEN0 (-2)6.112.0where will he land?
964Brian HartlineMIA-4 (+1)9.48.1solid
965James JonesGB-3 (-5)9.27.9possible free agent
966Donald DriverGB-3 (-5)8.811.1getting older
967Nate BurlesonDET-7 (+0)11.512.0pushed as WR2 for DET
968Emmanuel SandersPIT9 (+13)6.06.0could push Ward for snaps
969Kevin WalterHOU1 (+0)8.99.1possession guy
970Jordan ShipleyCIN4 (+10)8.78.7possession guy
971Jason HillJAX4 (-2)5.24.0WR2 for JAX? good speed
972Danario AlexanderSTL2 (-2)7.17.1how does he fit in in STL?
973Leonard HankersonWAS-2 (-4)--great opportunity if S. Moss leaves
974Randall CobbGB-3 (-5)--could be GB WR3
975Brandon LaFellCAR7 (+6)6.96.9Cam needs someone to throw to

Updated 6/19/11

SOS: 2011 projected strength of schedule (change from 2010)…so 4 (-3) would indicate a generally favorable schedule, but one that is tougher than the previous year. QBs and WR/TE (std) use pass SOS, WR/TE (PPR) use receiving SOS and RB (std/ppr) use a combination of rush, pass and receiving SOS. Std uses 75/25 rush/pass while PPR uses 60/40 rush/receiving. This is due to receiving SOS including one point per reception.

2010: Per game fantasy points in 2010

2-yr Avg: Straight two-year per game average

The Big Board: WRs

QB | RB | RB (PPR) | WR | WR (PPR) | TE | TE (PPR)

Tier#NameTmSOS20102-yr AvgComments
11Andre JohnsonHOU-1 (-3)13.113.2no risk, assuming he stays healthy
12Hakeem NicksNYG-2 (-6)13.210.7wickedly productive when healthy
13Roddy WhiteATL1 (+8)12.511.9Jones' arrival means fewer but better targets
14Calvin JohnsonDET-4 (+2)12.511.1Stafford's shoulder will be key
25Larry FitzgeraldARI-1 (-7)9.410.5assuming he gets a decent QB
26Mike WallacePIT6 (+10)11.99.6love him in the 2nd round, great schedule
27Reggie WayneIND8 (-2)10.711.2on the decline, but target monster
38Greg JenningsGB-1 (-1)12.410.4a little overrated w/Finley back, tough sched.
39Vincent JacksonSD1 (-10)8.810.1was WR10 in 2009, in contract year
310DeSean JacksonPHI1 (-4)11.312.0will have his ups and downs
311Dwayne BoweKC-6 (-12)12.910.2schedule much tougher
312Mike A. WilliamsTB0 (+4)10.210.2low catch %, but TB's clear WR1
313Austin CollieIND8 (-2)12.59.7high risk, high reward
414Steve JohnsonBUF-3 (+2)10.55.3situation unchanged
415Miles AustinDAL2 (+5)10.111.2Bryant's targets a concern
416Jeremy MaclinPHI1 (-4)10.08.3steady, TD regression likely
417Brandon MarshallMIA0 (+6)8.610.1should bounce back in TD dept
418Brandon LloydDEN-4 (-5)13.19.5DEN will pass less in 2011, schedule tougher
419Santonio HolmesNYJ0 (+0)9.49.5should be Jets' WR1
420Wes WelkerNE-8 (+5)8.510.0solid if unspectacular in non-PPR leagues
521Dez BryantDAL2 (+5)7.77.7lot of upside here
522Percy HarvinMIN-1 (+5)9.59.1who will QB the Vikings?
523Marques ColstonNO5 (+5)9.69.9knee is a growing concern
524Sidney RiceMIN-1 (+5)6.78.9who will QB the Vikings?
525Anquan BoldinBAL4 (+8)7.98.4wrong side of 30, but still BAL's WR1
526A.J. GreenCIN5 (+14)--can Dalton get it to him?
627Pierre GarconIND8 (-2)8.27.74th option in pass-offense, big upside
628Johnny KnoxCHI1 (+2)7.96.7CHI's WR1 for now
629Mario ManninghamNYG-2 (-6)9.38.7if Smith's not healthy, watch out
630Santana Moss--9.28.0where will he land?
631Mike ThomasJAX-1 (-6)7.35.8will be Jags' WR1 for now
632Davone BessMIA0 (+6)7.06.3underappreciated
633Steve L. Smith--4.97.2where will he land?
634Kenny BrittTEN-1 (-6)11.08.2million-dollar talent w/ten cent head
635Jordy NelsonGB-1 (-1)4.43.9if WR2, move him up a few slots
736Terrell Owens--10.99.3where will he land?
738Deion BranchNE-8 (+5)7.95.9great value in middle rounds
737Mike WilliamsSEA0 (+1)6.26.2reportedly staying in shape
739Michael CrabtreeSF5 (+6)6.96.8not working out with team
740Jacoby FordOAK3 (-1)5.45.4nice WR4 in leagues that reward return TDs
741Steve SmithNYG-2 (-6)7.99.1how is that knee? could be a free agent
742Danny AmendolaSTL1 (-5)5.94.3better in PPR leagues
743Julio JonesATL1 (+8)--ATL needs to throw more
744Lance MooreNO5 (+5)7.85.8upside if Colston struggles
745Chad Ochocinco--7.78.9where will he land?
746Greg LittleCLE1 (+8)--WR1 in CLE?
747Anthony ArmstrongWAS-2 (-3)7.07.0WR1 in WAS?
748Mark ClaytonSTL1 (-5)8.66.6knees are a concern, crowded STL WR corps
849Braylon Edwards--8.37.0hands were better last year
850Derrick MasonBAL4 (+8)7.68.4the ageless one
851Hines WardPIT6 (+10)6.68.1big decline in production in 2010
852Jerome SimpsonCIN5 (+14)9.29.2Green killed his upside
853Josh MorganSF5 (+6)5.25.0could capitalize if Crabtree doesn't step up
854Robert MeachemNO5 (+5)6.07.2upside, just like every year
855Steve BreastonARI-1 (-7)6.36.2QB?
856Malcom FloydSD1 (-10)9.87.5will go back to 3rd option in pass offense
857Mike Sims-Walker--7.07.8free agent
858Lee EvansBUF-3 (+2)6.36.4no longer the WR1 in BUF
859Ben ObomanuSEA0 (+1)5.02.6could be the WR2 in SEA
860Arrelious BennTB0 (+4)3.73.7WR2 in TB?
961Randy MossTEN-1 (-6)4.38.6where will he land?
962Brian HartlineMIA0 (+6)5.95.3solid
963James JonesGB-1 (-1)6.15.4possible free agent
964Earl BennettCHI1 (+2)5.45.3possession guy for CHI
965Donald DriverGB-1 (-1)5.47.2getting older
966Nate BurlesonDET-4 (+2)7.67.6pushed as WR2 for DET
967Roscoe ParrishBUF-3 (+2)6.83.6possession guy, limited upside
968Emmanuel SandersPIT6 (+10)3.83.8could push Ward for snaps
969Kevin WalterHOU-1 (-3)5.85.6possession guy
970Jordan ShipleyCIN5 (+14)5.25.2possession guy
971Jason HillJAX-1 (-6)3.92.9WR2 for JAX? good speed
972Danario AlexanderSTL1 (-5)4.64.6how does he fit in in STL?
973Leonard HankersonWAS-2 (-3)--great opportunity if S. Moss leaves
974Brandon LaFellCAR6 (+11)4.24.2Cam needs someone to throw to
975Randall CobbGB-1 (-1)--could be GB WR3

Updated 6/19/11

SOS: 2011 projected strength of schedule (change from 2010)…so 4 (-3) would indicate a generally favorable schedule, but one that is tougher than the previous year. QBs and WR/TE (std) use pass SOS, WR/TE (PPR) use receiving SOS and RB (std/ppr) use a combination of rush, pass and receiving SOS. Std uses 75/25 rush/pass while PPR uses 60/40 rush/receiving. This is due to receiving SOS including one point per reception.

2010: Per game fantasy points in 2010

2-yr Avg: Straight two-year per game average

Post-Draft 2011 WR Rankings

In the table below you’ll find my initial WR rankings for the 2011 season, assuming we have one. For each player, I’ll list their strength of schedule (SOS), their 2010 points per game output adjusted for the 2011 SOS (i.e. if their 2010 performance was translated to their 2011 SOS) and their straight two-year average (schedule bias not removed). Keep in mind these aren’t actual projections, just additional info and the likely order that I’d draft these players given what we know now. Things will change as some of these free agents (hopefully) find homes for the season. Keep in mind these are rankings for standard (non-PPR) leagues.

– Who has the highest 2011 PPG projection when applying 2011 SOS adjustment to 2010 actual 2010 performance? Mike Wallace, that’s who. He had the 9th-highest point per game average last season, but his schedule looks a lot easier and he has a few great matchups in the fantasy playoffs. I’d say his value should be solidly in the 2nd round, and he’s currently going WR10. I’d take him WR5, depending on who Arizona gets to throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald.

– While I do like Dwayne Bowe, his SOS looks to be about 9% tougher than last year, and he has a couple of bad matchups during the fantasy playoffs. Right now, I project him to have eight tough matchups and zero easy ones. That could change, but as it stands — not good.

– Both Philly WRs should have productive years, though it’s tough to tell who’s the better value. DeSean Jackson is probably the better pick in standard leagues, while I’d seriously consider drafting Jeremy Maclin first in PPR formats.

– Santonio Holmes seems to be undervalued at this point in the offseason. It might be that his contract is up in the air, but if he re-ups with the Jets (which is likely) then he should have a great shot at finishing in the Top 20 this season. He’s definitely a Top 20 talent.

– Austin Collie is a great example of a boom/bust pick this season. He was hugely productive when he played in 2010 (#5 in PPG), but he’s a big injury risk. Kenny Britt is boom/bust for other reasons. If he plays a full 16-game season, he’s probably going to finish in the Top 10, assuming the Titans have a somewhat decent QB under center.

– Mike Thomas and Davone Bess are classic PPR guys, but they have been productive in standard leagues as well. Thomas should benefit from Mike Sims-Walker’s departure and become the Jaguars’ WR1 by attrition. Meanwhile, Bess has to fight Brian Hartline for targets and has Chad Henne at QB (right now).

– Don’t forget what Mark Clayton did before getting injured this season. The Rams didn’t do much to address the WR position in the draft, so if Clayton’s knee comes back strong, he should be the WR1 in Josh McDaniels’ pass-happy offense.

– Jacoby Ford and Michael Crabtree are a couple of younger sleepers who could emerge as bona fide WR1s for their respective teams. Hopefully, Jim Harbaugh features Crabtree in the passing game and can coax good QB play out of Alex Smith or whoever is under center for the 49ers. Ford was solid down the stretch for the Raiders and is probably the best WR in Oakland.



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