Posts Tagged ‘2011 RB Rankings’

The Big Board: RBs (PPR)

QB | RB | RB (PPR) | WR | WR (PPR) | TE | TE (PPR)

Tier#NameTmSOS20102-yr AvgComments
11Arian FosterHOU0 (+3)24.817.5he should keep it rolling
12Adrian PetersonMIN3 (+6)18.519.7QB play working against him, better schedule
23Chris JohnsonTEN2 (+3)17.321.1QB issues; losing goal line touches?
24LeSean McCoyPHI-1 (-1)19.914.9underrated stud
25Jamaal CharlesKC-5 (-9)17.916.6supreme talent; schedule is much tougher
26Ray RiceBAL0 (0)17.319.0dependable, may get a few more goal line touches
37Maurice Jones-DrewJAX-1 (-3)17.218.7schedule is tougher, knee is a concern
38Darren McFaddenOAK-1 (-1)21.014.1if he stays healthy he's a top 5 RB
39Frank GoreSF6 (+2)18.819.5always an injury concern
310Matt ForteCHI2 (+4)16.715.2favorable schedule, solid workload
311Rashard MendenhallPIT2 (+5)15.314.2workhorse back, doesn't catch many passes
312Steven JacksonSTL1 (-7)15.315.9concerns about new offense-too pass happy?
313Peyton HillisCLE0 (+4)19.010.1concerns about workload, but should be solid RB2
314Michael TurnerATL3 (+3)14.414.2fringe RB1 available in 2nd round
415Ahmad BradshawNYG-2 (-5)15.613.2solid RB2 if he returns to NYG
416Jahvid BestDET-3 (+2)12.412.4should be featured, but Leshoure a worry
417Ryan MathewsSD-1 (-8)12.212.2splitting time with Tolbert, injury concerns
418DeAngelo Williams--9.912.9where will he land?
419Knowshon MorenoDEN-4 (-2)15.413.9could be a RB1 if DEN doesn't bring in RB
420Cedric BensonCIN3 (+9)12.813.7asking price too much for Cincy?
521Joseph AddaiIND2 (0)13.114.7should return to Indy
522LeGarrette BlountTB0 (-3)11.011.0not involved in passing game
523Felix JonesDAL3 (+4)11.610.0Murray draft pick a concern
524Shonn GreeneNYJ-1 (+0)7.86.2finally taking over Jets' RB1 role?
625Mark IngramNO3 (-2)--workload-should be Saints' RB1
626Marshawn LynchSEA-1 (-4)9.18.5just 25 years old, feature back
627Fred JacksonBUF-5 (+2)11.712.5still the BUF RB1
628Jonathan StewartCAR4 (+4)8.110.6jumps up a dozen spots if RB1 in CAR
629BenJarvus Green-EllisNE-6 (+4)12.56.8better than given credit for in 2010
630Danny WoodheadNE-6 (+4)10.810.8very productive in change-of-pace role
731Mike TolbertSD-1 (-8)12.48.5underrated backup, goal line back
732Ryan GrantGB2 (+3)4.59.6will battle with Starks for carries
733Daniel ThomasMIA0 (+3)--RB1 in MIA, for now
734Ryan WilliamsARI-2 (-6)--part of three-headed monster?
735Roy HeluWAS-3 (-2)--could overtake Torain for WAS RB1
836Ryan TorainWAS-3 (-2)14.114.1part of Shanahan's RBBC
837James StarksGB2 (+3)4.54.5will battle with Grant for carries, better receiver
838Brandon JacobsNYG-2 (-5)9.39.9still the NYG goal line back
839Ronnie Brown--10.012.6uncertain future, but talented
840Ricky Williams--7.411.6uncertain future, getting older, still can run
841LaDainian TomlinsonNYJ-1 (+0)14.413.6relegated to third-down back duties
842Reggie BushNO3 (-2)9.510.7still has value in PPR leagues
943C.J. SpillerBUF-5 (+2)5.35.3can he emerge in his 2nd season?
944Pierre ThomasNO3 (-2)14.714.4talented, yet injury-prone, battling with Ingram
945Thomas JonesKC-5 (-9)9.512.2reduced role?
946Michael BushOAK-1 (-1)10.88.7good runner behind fragile starter
947DeMarco MurrayDAL3 (+4)--can he push Felix for touches?
948Delone CarterIND2 (0)--could emerge if Addai leaves/gets hurt
949Rashad JenningsJAX-1 (-3)9.16.3will produce if given chance
950Chris WellsARI-2 (-6)4.97.1Williams draft pick beginning of the end?

Updated 6/19/11

SOS: 2011 projected strength of schedule (change from 2010)…so 4 (-3) would indicate a generally favorable schedule, but one that is tougher than the previous year. QBs and WR/TE (std) use pass SOS, WR/TE (PPR) use receiving SOS and RB (std/ppr) use a combination of rush, pass and receiving SOS. Std uses 75/25 rush/pass while PPR uses 60/40 rush/receiving. This is due to receiving SOS including one point per reception.

2010: Per game fantasy points in 2010

2-yr Avg: Straight two-year per game average

The Big Board: RBs

QB | RB | RB (PPR) | WR | WR (PPR) | TE | TE (PPR)

Tier#NameTmSOS20102-yr AvgComments
11Arian FosterHOU0 (+3)20.614.7he should keep it rolling
12Adrian PetersonMIN7 (+9)16.117.1QB play working against him, better schedule
23Chris JohnsonTEN3 (+3)14.618.1QB issues; losing goal line touches?
24Jamaal CharlesKC-4 (-10)15.113.9supreme talent; schedule is much tougher
25LeSean McCoyPHI-2 (+1)14.711.1underrated stud
26Ray RiceBAL-1 (-1)13.414.6dependable, may get a few more goal line touches
27Rashard MendenhallPIT0 (+3)13.912.7workhorse back, doesn't catch many passes
38Maurice Jones-DrewJAX-4 (-4)14.715.9schedule is tougher, knee is a concern
39Darren McFaddenOAK2 (+2)17.411.5if he stays healthy he's a top 5 RB
310Frank GoreSF7 (+0)14.615.5always an injury concern
311Matt ForteCHI5 (+4)13.511.9favorable schedule, solid workload
312Michael TurnerATL3 (+2)13.613.6fringe RB1 available in 2nd round
313Steven JacksonSTL0 (-9)12.412.8concerns about new offense-too pass happy?
314Peyton HillisCLE-2 (+3)15.28.1concerns about workload, but should be solid RB2
415Ahmad BradshawNYG-2 (-2)12.711.0solid RB2 if he returns to NYG
416LeGarrette BlountTB-2 (-3)10.610.6not involved in passing game
417Ryan MathewsSD1 (-6)10.410.4splitting time with Tolbert, injury concerns
418Jahvid BestDET-2 (+4)8.88.8should be featured, but Leshoure a worry
419DeAngelo Williams--8.010.9where will he land?
420Knowshon MorenoDEN-3 (-1)12.511.6could be a RB1 if DEN doesn't bring in RB
421Cedric BensonCIN3 (+10)11.112.2asking price too much for Cincy?
422Shonn GreeneNYJ0 (+2)6.75.7finally taking over Jets' RB1 role?
523Joseph AddaiIND0 (-1)10.711.8should return to Indy
524Mark IngramNO2 (-1)--workload-should be Saints' RB1
525Felix JonesDAL4 (+5)8.67.8Murray draft pick a concern
526Jonathan StewartCAR3 (+5)7.59.8jumps up a dozen spots if RB1 in CAR
527Marshawn LynchSEA-2 (-7)7.86.8just 25 years old, feature back
528Fred JacksonBUF-5 (+3)9.810.1still the BUF RB1
629BenJarvus Green-EllisNE-4 (+4)11.76.4better than given credit for in 2010
630Mike TolbertSD1 (-6)10.77.2underrated backup, goal line back
631Ryan GrantGB4 (+6)4.58.8will battle with Starks for carries
632Daniel ThomasMIA2 (+5)--RB1 in MIA, for now
633Danny WoodheadNE-4 (+4)8.68.6very productive in change-of-pace role
634Ryan WilliamsARI-3 (-7)--part of three-headed monster?
635Roy HeluWAS-3 (-1)--could overtake Torain for WAS RB1
736Ryan TorainWAS-3 (-1)12.312.3part of Shanahan's RBBC
737James StarksGB4 (+6)3.93.9will battle with Grant for carries, better receiver
738Brandon JacobsNYG-2 (-2)8.99.0still the NYG goal line back
739Ronnie Brown--8.010.8uncertain future, but talented
740Ricky Williams--6.29.9uncertain future, getting older, still can run
741Thomas JonesKC-4 (-10)8.611.5reduced role?
842Michael BushOAK2 (+2)9.57.5good runner behind fragile starter
843C.J. SpillerBUF-5 (+3)3.63.6can he emerge in his 2nd season?
844LaDainian TomlinsonNYJ0 (+2)10.911.2relegated to third-down back duties
845DeMarco MurrayDAL4 (+5)--can he push Felix for touches?
846Pierre ThomasNO2 (-1)9.810.5talented, yet injury-prone, battling with Ingram
847Delone CarterIND0 (-1)--could emerge if Addai leaves/gets hurt
848Rashad JenningsJAX-4 (-4)7.14.8will produce if given chance
849Chris WellsARI-3 (-7)4.56.5Williams draft pick beginning of the end?
850Montario HardestyCLE-2 (+3)--will spell Hillis

Updated 6/19/11

SOS: 2011 projected strength of schedule (change from 2010)…so 4 (-3) would indicate a generally favorable schedule, but one that is tougher than the previous year. QBs and WR/TE (std) use pass SOS, WR/TE (PPR) use receiving SOS and RB (std/ppr) use a combination of rush, pass and receiving SOS. Std uses 75/25 rush/pass while PPR uses 60/40 rush/receiving. This is due to receiving SOS including one point per reception.

2010: Per game fantasy points in 2010

2-yr Avg: Straight two-year per game average

Post-Draft 2011 RB Rankings

It’s probably too early to start ranking players, but is it ever too early to rank players? Did I just blow your mind? I hope so.

In the table below you’ll find my initial (a.k.a. way too early) RB rankings for the 2011 season, assuming we have one. For each player, I’ll list their strength of schedule (SOS), their 2010 points per game output adjusted for the 2011 SOS (i.e. if their 2010 performance was translated to their 2011 SOS) and their straight two-year average (schedule bias not removed). Keep in mind these aren’t actual projections, just additional info and the order that I’d draft these players given what we know now. Things will change as some of these free agents (hopefully) find homes for the season.

– As far as the studs are concerned, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson all project to have easier schedules in 2011. QB play is a giant concern for both Johnson and Peterson, so we’ll keep an eye on that this summer. Christian Ponder may be the starter in Minnesota, while the Titans may bring in a veteran to hold down the fort while Jake Locker develops. Both players need a capable QB to keep defenses honest.

– LeSean McCoy is not just a force in PPR leagues. He finished RB5 in adjusted PPG in standard leagues, and I think he has a good shot at finishing in the Top 5 again in 2011. Jamaal Charles is arguably the better RB, but his schedule projects to be almost 11% tougher this season. I still think he’s a great RB1, but I favor McCoy a bit more at this point.

– While I like Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew, they have the toughest schedules of any of the top 15 RBs. Rice’s SOS is about 5% worse while MJD’s is almost 8% tougher. They’ll still be workhorses for their respective teams and solid RB1s for fantasy owners, but if my initial SOS bears out, they may find the going difficult most weeks.

– As usual, it looks like fantasy owners picking near the end of the first round will be able to snag a couple of solid if unspectacular RBs. Darren McFadden is the most explosive RB available at the end of the first round, but his injury history will keep him from being a Top 6 selection on draft day. Still, if he plays 15-16 games, he has a great shot to finish in the Top 5. Matt Forte, Rashard “The Truther” Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis and Steven Jackson should all be solid picks late in the first two rounds. Regarding Hillis, Montario Hardesty will eat into his touches, but Hillis is the better overall back right now and should be dangerous as a pass-catcher in Cleveland’s West Coast Offense. His workload will be lightened, but he should be able to be more productive with the touches he does get.

– Jonathan Stewart’s current ranking reflects the possibility that DeAngelo Williams is still in Carolina (booooo!) when the free agency dust finally settles. If Stewart is the RB1 for the Panthers, I’d probably have him at RB15 or RB16; if he’s still playing second-fiddle, then his value would fall in to the 30′s. Fantasy owners everywhere are hoping that Williams lands somewhere where he’s needed. Free the Daily Show already!

– Just when you think you can pinpoint the value of a Patriot RB, the backfield is once again a mess thanks to New England’s selection of Shane Vereen in the draft. He’s a smallish back, but can run between the tackles, which threatens Danny Woodhead as much as BenJarvus Green-Ellis. We’re going to have to wait for the Patriot beat reporters to dig into the team’s plans for this group, but it smells like a classic New England RBBC and that’s not good for Woody or the Law Firm.

– I expect Ryan Williams will start for the Cardinals, but he’s no sure thing. He’ll need to get his pass protections down if he’s going to fend Tim Hightower off for third-down back duty. Then there’s the matter of Beanie Wells, who has obviously lost the confidence of the coaching staff but is still dangerous.

– The Redskins, Packers, Cowboys and Bills all have muddy RB situations that will hopefully clear up as we get into training camp. One great side effect of the explosion in fantasy football is that beat writers know that people across the country want to know who’s going to be the feature back, so they (hopefully) ask that question over and over until they get a satisfactory answer. Certain coaches (like Bill Belichick) never tip their hands, but most do offer some kernel of information for fantasy owners to go on.



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