Posts Tagged ‘PPR Strength of Schedule’

Early 2011 Strength of Schedule: TEs (PPR)

QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DT | RB (PPR) | WR (PPR) | TE (PPR)

Below is a full season point-per-reception (PPR) SOS table for the tight end position. Here is what each column means:

2011: The total SOS (excluding W17 since a vast majority of leagues do not play in W17) for 2011.

%CH: The percent change from 2010. A positive number means that the team has an easier schedule, while a negative number means that the schedule projects to be tougher.

P3: The team’s average SOS for a W14-16 playoff.

P2: The team’s average SOS for a W15-16 playoff.

If a particular matchup is listed in green, it means that it is at least 3% better than the average for that week. If it’s listed in red, it’s 3% worse than the mean.

I use SOS as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players or as a way to rank players within a tier. It’s important to note that this is just preliminary SOS. Things will change as the draft and free agency occur, and they’ll change week by week during the season as some defenses get better while others get worse. Typically, a defense won’t go from terrible to great (vice versa) in one year, so if you’re expecting a great matchup from your TE in W16, there’s a very good chance that it will be at worst mediocre at that point in the season.

Click the table to see a larger version.

Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley and Brandon Pettigrew were three tight ends that fared significantly better in PPR leagues than in standard leagues in 2010. Coincidentally, they all finished five spots higher in adjusted fantasy points per game in the PPR format.

While Cooley’s schedule is about the same, both Gonzalez and Pettigrew project to see a significantly easier schedule in 2011. In fact, Gonzo’s schedule looks like it will improve as much as any TE this season. Considering he finished as 2010′s TE6 in overall PPR scoring, it seems strange that he’s going TE15 in early drafts. He’s not likely to go out and post Top 5 numbers, but you could do a lot worse in the 10th or 11th rounds if you need a TE after loading up on other positions.

Most pundits seem to be down on both Cooley and Pettigrew heading into 2011, though I think both players are pretty good values considering where they’re going in drafts (TE12 and TE11, respectively). Both players have QB questions: Will Matthew Stafford target Pettigrew as much as Shaun Hill did? Who will be QBing the Redskins and will they look to Cooley like Donovan McNabb did? Will Fred Davis finally overtake him? These are legitimate questions, but I don’t think fantasy owners should write either player off at this point.

Oh, and I like Jared Cook.

Click here to download a CSV file of this data.

If you like this kind of information, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@FantasyShrink) and “like” the site on Facebook. I will be publishing a ton of content over the next few months and throughout the season.

Early 2011 Strength of Schedule: WRs (PPR)

QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DT | RB (PPR) | WR (PPR) | TE (PPR)

Below is a full season point-per-reception (PPR) SOS table for the wide receiver position. Here is what each column means:

2011: The total SOS (excluding W17 since a vast majority of leagues do not play in W17) for 2011.

%CH: The percent change from 2010. A positive number means that the team has an easier schedule, while a negative number means that the schedule projects to be tougher.

P3: The team’s average SOS for a W14-16 playoff.

P2: The team’s average SOS for a W15-16 playoff.

If a particular matchup is listed in green, it means that it is at least 3% better than the average for that week. If it’s listed in red, it’s 3% worse than the mean.

I use SOS as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players or as a way to rank players within a tier. It’s important to note that this is just preliminary SOS. Things will change as the draft and free agency occur, and they’ll change week by week during the season as some defenses get better while others get worse. Typically, a defense won’t go from terrible to great (vice versa) in one year, so if you’re expecting a great matchup from your WR in W16, there’s a very good chance that it will be at worst mediocre at that point in the season.

Click the table to see a larger version.

Again, even though the numbers grow, there isn’t much change with regard to which wide receivers have good matchups in PPR leagues versus standard leagues. So I’d just like to highlight a few players that fared a lot better in PPR leagues in 2010 and look at their 2011 SOS for some clues about how they might perform next season.

Reggie Wayne finished nine spots higher (WR8 vs. WR17 in adjusted points per game) in PPR leagues in 2010 and given his favorable schedule and easy matchups during the fantasy playoffs, he should continue to perform well in the format. However, he is going WR6 which seems a bit early, especially if Austin Collie can put his concussion problems behind him.

Wes Welker has long been a PPR monster and finished WR11 in the format in 2010. Even though the Pats project to have a slightly tougher schedule than average, it appears to be almost 3% easier than last season. This bodes well for Welker and Deion Branch.

Davone Bess finished WR30 (in adjusted points per game) in PPR leagues versus WR38 in standard leagues. He’s currently going WR36 in PPR formats, so he appears to be undervalued heading into 2011. This goes double if Brandon Marshall can’t get his act together, as the Dolphins schedule should be improved in 2011.

Larry Fitzgerald finished 12 spots higher (WR20 vs. WR32) in PPR leagues mostly because the Cardinals had such a tough time punching the ball into the endzone. If Arizona can upgrade its QB situation to mediocre (from awful in 2010) then Fitzy should have a much better 2011, especially since the schedule projects to be 3.5% easier.

Click here to download a CSV file of this data.

If you like this kind of information, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@FantasyShrink) and “like” the site on Facebook. I will be publishing a ton of content over the next few months and throughout the season.

Early 2011 Strength of Schedule: RBs (PPR)

QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DT | RB (PPR) | WR (PPR) | TE (PPR)

Below is a full season point-per-reception (PPR) SOS table for the running back position. Here is what each column means:

2011: The total SOS (excluding W17 since a vast majority of leagues do not play in W17) for 2011.

%CH: The percent change from 2010. A positive number means that the team has an easier schedule, while a negative number means that the schedule projects to be tougher.

P3: The team’s average SOS for a W14-16 playoff.

P2: The team’s average SOS for a W15-16 playoff.

If a particular matchup is listed in green, it means that it is at least 3% better than the average for that week. If it’s listed in red, it’s 3% worse than the mean.

I use SOS as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players or as a way to rank players within a tier. It’s important to note that this is just preliminary SOS. Things will change as the draft and free agency occur, and they’ll change week by week during the season as some defenses get better while others get worse. Typically, a defense won’t go from terrible to great (vice versa) in one year, so if you’re expecting a great matchup from your RB in W16, there’s a very good chance that it will be at worst mediocre at that point in the season.

Click the table to see a larger version.

Typically, if a RB has a good matchup in standard scoring formats, he’s going to have a good matchup in PPR scoring as well, so there isn’t a whole lot of change between this and the standard SOS that I released a few days ago.

I do want to take a moment to talk about Danny Woodhead, who seems like back that would perform better in a PPR format. Only in 2010, he didn’t. He was RB23 in adjusted per game scoring in standard formats as opposed to RB25 in PPR formats. He can certainly catch the ball (he was actually listed as a WR for most of the season at a few different fantasy football sites), but only averaged 2.4 catches over the last 14 regular season games with the Patriots.

I expect that to change in 2011. First, the Patriots locked him up to a long term deal so they obviously like what he brings to the table. If New England sticks with BenJarvus Green-Ellis as their main rusher, then Woodhead’s role won’t change much from what we saw during the meat of the season. He only caught one pass in his first two games, so when we eliminate those two contests (and include his six-catch playoff game against the Jets), he averaged 3.0 catches per game. I see this as Woody’s baseline in the passing game. Even if the Pats draft a RB in the first round, it’s more likely that the player will eat into BGE’s touches than Woodhead’s. Unless NE drafts a scat-back, of course.

Woodhead is currently going RB36 (with a 7.3 ADP), he appears to be undervalued at this point in the offseason. NE’s SOS is actually a little better in 2011, so barring some change, I see no problem with entrusting Woody with your RB3 slot in either scoring format. This may allow fantasy owners to use four of their first six picks on non-RBs. If they also go QBBC, they could end up with two very strong RBs, a trio of WRs, a stud TE, Woodhead as their RB3 and 2-3 QBs in Rounds 8-12.

Click here to download a CSV file of this data.

If you like this kind of information, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@FantasyShrink) and “like” the site on Facebook. I will be publishing a ton of content over the next few months and throughout the season.



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