TEs
Owners give up fight for ‘right of first refusal’
As the lockout nears its end, one of the sticking points is how free agency is going to work this summer. The owners wanted to be able to designate three free agents whose contracts they could match, but have since given up on that request. As the agreement tentatively stands, teams will have 72 hours to sign their own players and then…well…all hell breaks loose. Most players will find it in their best interests to test the free agency market, so this year’s free agency period promises to be fast and furious.
How does this affect fantasy owners? A great example is DeAngelo Williams — for a time it looked like the 2011 season may be played under 2010 rules, and he’d have to wait another year for unrestricted free agency (UFA). But it appears that he’s headed for free agency this summer, which means it’s likely that he’ll land elsewhere in 2011, assuming the Panthers aren’t willing to pay him. Carolina could re-sign Williams, but it seems more likely that they’ll move forward with Jonathan Stewart as their feature back. This means that instead of a two-headed RBBC monster in Carolina, we may have two more bona fide bell cow backs to draft in the first three or four rounds.
Below is a list of the top free agents at each position. I’m mainly going to list players who are likely to have a fantasy impact if they land with new teams. An asterisk indicates that the player has been slapped with a franchise tag, and it appears the new CBA will honor those tags. That means the player will be under control of their current team for at least one more season.
QB: Peyton Manning*, Michael Vick*, Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, Marc Bulger and Rex Grossman
Manning and Vick will almost certainly re-sign, but Hasselbeck is likely to be on the move. The 49ers look like they’re planning to hold onto Smith, while the Redskins may re-sign Grossman.
RB: Arian Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mike Tolbert, Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, Jason Snelling, Ricky Williams, Brandon Jackson, Tim Hightower, Derrick Ward, Cadillac Williams, Le’Ron McClain and Leon Washington
The Texans will likely lock up Foster before the 72-hour period is up, but Williams, Bradshaw, Benson and Addai could be on the move. Of those four, Williams seems most likely to change teams.
WR: Vincent Jackson*, Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, Santana Moss, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith (NYG), Malcom Floyd, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, James Jones, Steve Breaston, Mike Sims-Walker, Lance Moore, Ben Obomanu, Danny Amendola
Plan on V-Jax sticking with the Chargers for one more year, which makes him an interesting pick in the third round. If rumors of the Redskins’ interest are true, Holmes could be a hot commodity, though the Jets will have a chance to lock him up early in FA. Keep an eye on Steve Smith 2.0 — if he leaves New York, Mario Manningham will be in for a big year.
TE: Zach Miller, Marcedes Lewis*, Kevin Boss
Lewis was slapped with a franchise tag, so he’ll be in Jacksonville next season. That makes Miller the one and only impact TE available in FA, so the Raiders would be wise to lock him up early. He’s a sleeper again this season, especially with the way Jason Campbell came on late in 2010.
Once the CBA is finalized, I’ll be writing a comprehensive FA preview for 4for4.com.
2011 Strength of Schedule: WRs, TEs (Receiving)
Pass | Receiving | Rush
Below you’ll find a strength of schedule table for receivers, which are mainly WRs and TEs, but pass-catching RBs are also affected. The first two columns summarize the 2010 and 2011 SOS — the 2011 numbers are generated by assigning points (from +2 to -2) for very good (++), good (+), bad (-) and very bad (- -) matchups. The higher the score in the first two columns, the better the overall schedules for that particular season. The next four columns (in orange) show the number of 2011 matchups that fall into each category.
You’ll notice that the yearly summary numbers (in grey) are similar to the pass SOS, which makes sense because both are dependent on passing yardage. Receiving numbers are also impacted by receptions (PPR formats), so that’s why there is some variation. If you play in standard scoring leagues, you’ll want to look at the QB SOS for your WR/TE SOS.
For an explanation of my methodology, check out the QB SOS as well as the post that examined the dependability of preseason SOS.
| Tm | 2010 | 2011 | VG | G | B | VB | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | |
| ATL | -6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | ? | ? | - | ++ | -- | -- | ++ | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ++ | -- | + | ? | - | |
| BAL | -1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ? | ++ | ? | -- | ++ | + | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | - | ? | ? | |
| BUF | -5 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | ? | -- | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | -- | ? | ? | -- | ++ | - | ? | - | ++ | |
| CAR | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ? | -- | + | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ++ | ++ | ? | - | ++ | ++ | - | ? | |
| CHI | -5 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | ++ | ? | -- | -- | ++ | ? | - | ? | ++ | - | -- | ? | - | ++ | -- | ? | |
| CIN | -6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ? | - | ? | -- | + | ? | ++ | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | |
| CLE | -4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ? | ? | ? | ++ | -- | ++ | ? | ++ | ? | + | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| DAL | -1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -- | ? | ? | ++ | ++ | ? | ? | ++ | -- | ? | ? | ? | ? | - | ? | ? | |
| DEN | -2 | -6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -- | ? | ++ | -- | - | ? | ++ | -- | ? | -- | - | ? | ? | ++ | -- | ? | |
| DET | -7 | -7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | - | ? | -- | -- | ? | ? | -- | - | -- | |
| GB | 2 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | ? | -- | ? | - | ++ | ? | ? | - | ? | - | ++ | ? | -- | ? | ? | ++ | |
| HOU | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | ? | ? | ? | ? | -- | ? | ++ | + | ? | - | + | ++ | ? | -- | ? | ++ | |
| IND | 9 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ++ | ? | ? | - | ? | ? | ? | ++ | ++ | + | -- | ++ | ? | ++ | ++ | + | |
| JAX | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ++ | -- | -- | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ++ | - | - | ++ | ++ | ? | |
| KC | 1 | -9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -- | ++ | - | ? | ? | -- | - | ? | - | ++ | ? | ? | -- | -- | -- | - | |
| MIA | -5 | -4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | ++ | ++ | ? | - | -- | - | ? | ? | ? | -- | ? | -- | ? | -- | ++ | -- | |
| MIN | -6 | -5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | - | ++ | ? | ? | ? | -- | -- | -- | -- | ++ | - | ++ | ? | ? | ? | |
| NE | -13 | -10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | ? | - | -- | -- | -- | ? | ? | ? | -- | ? | ? | ? | ? | - | ? | -- | |
| NO | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -- | ? | ++ | + | -- | - | ? | ? | - | ++ | ? | ++ | ++ | ? | ++ | -- | |
| NYG | 8 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | -- | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | -- | ? | ? | -- | ? | |
| NYJ | 0 | -3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ? | + | -- | ? | ++ | ? | - | -- | ++ | - | -- | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| OAK | 5 | -3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | -- | -- | ++ | ++ | ? | ? | - | - | ? | ? | ? | -- | ++ | ? | - | |
| PHI | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ? | ++ | ? | ? | -- | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | ++ | ? | -- | ? | ? | |
| PIT | -4 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ? | ++ | ? | ++ | ++ | + | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| SD | 8 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | ? | ++ | ? | ? | - | -- | ? | -- | -- | ? | - | + | -- | ? | ++ | -- | |
| SEA | -2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ? | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| SF | -3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ++ | ? | ? | ? | - | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | ? | |
| STL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ? | ? | ? | ? | -- | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | |
| TB | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | ++ | ? | ++ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ++ | -- | ++ | -- | + | ? | -- | ++ | |
| TEN | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | + | ? | - | ? | ? | ++ | ? | ? | -- | ++ | - | -- | ? | ? | + | ++ | |
| WAS | 2 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | -- | -- | ? | ? | ? | ++ | -- | ++ | ? | ? | ? |
The Big Board: TEs (PPR)
QB | RB | RB (PPR) | WR | WR (PPR) | TE | TE (PPR)
| Tier | # | Name | Tm | SOS | 2010 | 2-yr Avg | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Antonio Gates | SD | -5 (-13) | 18.8 | 17.0 | if healthy, belongs in tier of his own |
| 2 | 2 | Jason Witten | DAL | 1 (+2) | 15.5 | 14.3 | steady as he goes |
| 2 | 3 | Jermichael Finley | GB | -3 (-5) | 14.3 | 13.0 | more upside than Witten, larger injury concern |
| 2 | 4 | Dallas Clark | IND | 10 (+1) | 15.0 | 16.0 | 2011 was first in four seasons that he missed 2+ games |
| 2 | 5 | Vernon Davis | SF | 5 (+8) | 11.8 | 13.8 | Harbaugh should help |
| 3 | 6 | Owen Daniels | HOU | 1 (+0) | 8.8 | 12.0 | 22-271-2 over his last four games; de facto WR2 in HOU |
| 3 | 7 | Jimmy Graham | NO | 5 (+0) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 11 rec, 4 TDs las three games; Shockey gone |
| 3 | 8 | Rob Gronkowski | NE | -10 (+3) | 9.8 | 9.8 | presence of Hernandez depresses ADP; 20 rec in last 5 |
| 3 | 9 | Marcedes Lewis | JAX | 4 (-2) | 11.8 | 9.1 | breakout 2011; things unchanged around him |
| 3 | 10 | Zach Miller | OAK | -3 (-8) | 10.6 | 10.8 | great when healthy; possible FA |
| 4 | 11 | Chris Cooley | WAS | -2 (-4) | 11.2 | 10.9 | QB situation a concern; more valuable in PPR leagues |
| 4 | 12 | Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 2 (+8) | 10.7 | 11.8 | still effective after all these years; improved schedule |
| 4 | 13 | Kellen Winslow Jr. | TB | 3 (+0) | 10.6 | 11.4 | major target for Freeman; knees a concern |
| 4 | 14 | Brandon Pettigrew | DET | -7 (+0) | 10.5 | 8.7 | will Stafford target him as much as Hill did? |
| 5 | 15 | Aaron Hernandez | NE | -10 (+3) | 10.1 | 10.1 | tailed off towards the end of 2010; just 12 rec in last 7 |
| 5 | 17 | Dustin Keller | NYJ | -3 (-3) | 9.6 | 8.2 | didn't catch a TD after Week 4; 3+ rec in last 9 games |
| 5 | 17 | Brent Celek | PHI | 2 (-7) | 7.3 | 10.6 | came on at the end of 2010; will Vick look his way? |
| 5 | 18 | Todd Heap | BAL | 4 (+5) | 10.0 | 9.6 | will get almost five targets per game if healthy |
| 5 | 19 | Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 4 (+10) | 8.2 | 8.2 | one of 7 TEs to register 50+ catches in rookie year |
| 5 | 20 | Ben Watson | CLE | 5 (+9) | 10.1 | 8.2 | what does new WCO mean for him? |
| 5 | 21 | Jared Cook | TEN | 0 (-2) | 4.4 | 2.8 | 24-292-1 over last 6 games, who will be QB in TEN? |
| 6 | 22 | Tony Moeaki | KC | -9 (-10) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2nd-most targets of all Chiefs last season |
| 6 | 23 | Kevin Boss | NYG | -2 (-10) | 7.9 | 8.3 | 5 TD in 7-game stretch from W9-W15 |
| 6 | 24 | Heath Miller | PIT | 9 (+13) | 7.5 | 9.7 | 3rd in targets to Wallace and Ward; Big Ben favorite |
| 6 | 25 | Greg Olsen | CHI | -3 (+2) | 7.0 | 8.8 | good talent, but 5th in targets isn't going to cut it |
| 6 | 26 | Anthony Fasano | MIA | -4 (+1) | 7.7 | 6.6 | more short passes could help his numbers; nice schedule |
| 6 | 27 | Lance Kendricks | STL | 2 (-2) | - | - | TE-shy McDaniels should use him |
| 6 | 28 | Jeremy Shockey | CAR | 7 (+6) | 7.7 | 8.6 | joins Cam Newton in Carolina |
| 6 | 29 | Visanthe Shiancoe | MIN | -5 (+1) | 7.0 | 9.1 | fighting off Kyle Rudolph; new QB can't help |
| 6 | 30 | John Carlson | SEA | 2 (+4) | 4.6 | 7.0 | 58 targets only one TD in 2010 |
Updated 6/19/11
SOS: 2011 projected strength of schedule (change from 2010)…so 4 (-3) would indicate a generally favorable schedule, but one that is tougher than the previous year. QBs and WR/TE (std) use pass SOS, WR/TE (PPR) use receiving SOS and RB (std/ppr) use a combination of rush, pass and receiving SOS. Std uses 75/25 rush/pass while PPR uses 60/40 rush/receiving. This is due to receiving SOS including one point per reception.
2010: Average fantasy points in 2010
2-yr Avg: Straight two-year per game average
The Big Board: TEs
QB | RB | RB (PPR) | WR | WR (PPR) | TE | TE (PPR)
| Tier | # | Name | Tm | SOS | 2010 | 2-yr Avg | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Antonio Gates | SD | 1 (-10) | 13.8 | 12.0 | if healthy, belongs in tier of his own |
| 2 | 2 | Jason Witten | DAL | 2 (+5) | 9.6 | 8.4 | steady as he goes |
| 2 | 3 | Jermichael Finley | GB | -1 (-1) | 9.0 | 8.3 | more upside than Witten, larger injury concern |
| 2 | 4 | Dallas Clark | IND | 8 (-2) | 8.8 | 9.8 | 2011 was first in four seasons that he missed 2+ games |
| 2 | 5 | Vernon Davis | SF | 5 (+6) | 8.3 | 9.6 | Harbaugh should help |
| 3 | 6 | Owen Daniels | HOU | -1 (-3) | 5.4 | 7.8 | 22-271-2 over his last four games; de facto WR2 in HOU |
| 3 | 7 | Jimmy Graham | NO | 5 (+5) | 4.4 | 4.4 | 11 rec, 4 TDs las three games; Shockey gone |
| 3 | 8 | Rob Gronkowski | NE | -8 (+5) | 7.2 | 7.2 | presence of Hernandez depresses ADP; 20 rec in last 5 |
| 3 | 9 | Marcedes Lewis | JAX | -1 (-6) | 8.1 | 6.2 | breakout 2011; things unchanged around him |
| 3 | 10 | Zach Miller | OAK | 3 (-1) | 6.6 | 6.6 | great when healthy; possible FA |
| 4 | 11 | Chris Cooley | WAS | -2 (-3) | 6.4 | 6.4 | QB situation a concern; more valuable in PPR leagues |
| 4 | 12 | Kellen Winslow Jr. | TB | 0 (+4) | 6.4 | 6.9 | major target for Freeman; knees a concern |
| 4 | 13 | Brandon Pettigrew | DET | -4 (+2) | 6.0 | 5.1 | will Stafford target him as much as Hill did? |
| 4 | 14 | Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 1 (+8) | 6.4 | 7.0 | still effective after all these years; improved schedule |
| 5 | 15 | Aaron Hernandez | NE | -8 (+5) | 6.9 | 6.9 | tailed off towards the end of 2010; just 12 rec in last 7 |
| 5 | 16 | Brent Celek | PHI | 1 (-4) | 4.7 | 6.9 | came on at the end of 2010; will Vick look his way? |
| 5 | 17 | Todd Heap | BAL | 4 (+8) | 6.9 | 6.4 | will get almost five targets per game if healthy |
| 5 | 18 | Dustin Keller | NYJ | 0 (+0) | 6.2 | 5.1 | didn't catch a TD after Week 4; 3+ rec in last 9 games |
| 5 | 19 | Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 5 (+14) | 4.7 | 4.7 | one of 7 TEs to register 50+ catches in rookie year |
| 5 | 20 | Ben Watson | CLE | 1 (+8) | 5.9 | 5.1 | what does new WCO mean for him? |
| 5 | 21 | Jared Cook | TEN | -1 (-6) | 2.6 | 1.6 | 24-292-1 over last 6 games, who will be QB in TEN? |
| 6 | 22 | Tony Moeaki | KC | -6 (-12) | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2nd-most targets of all Chiefs last season |
| 6 | 23 | Kevin Boss | NYG | -2 (-6) | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5 TD in 7-game stretch from W9-W15 |
| 6 | 24 | Heath Miller | PIT | 6 (+10) | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3rd in targets to Wallace and Ward; Big Ben favorite |
| 6 | 25 | Greg Olsen | CHI | 1 (+2) | 4.4 | 5.6 | good talent, but 5th in targets isn't going to cut it |
| 6 | 26 | Anthony Fasano | MIA | 0 (+6) | 5.1 | 4.2 | more short passes could help his numbers; nice schedule |
| 6 | 27 | Lance Kendricks | STL | 1 (-5) | - | - | TE-shy McDaniels should use him |
| 6 | 28 | Visanthe Shiancoe | MIN | -1 (+5) | 4.1 | 5.9 | fighting off Kyle Rudolph; new QB can't help |
| 6 | 29 | John Carlson | SEA | 0 (+1) | 2.5 | 4.4 | 58 targets only one TD in 2010 |
| 6 | 30 | Jeremy Shockey | CAR | 6 (+11) | 4.5 | 5.1 | joins Cam Newton in Carolina |
Updated 6/19/11
SOS: 2011 projected strength of schedule (change from 2010)…so 4 (-3) would indicate a generally favorable schedule, but one that is tougher than the previous year. QBs and WR/TE (std) use pass SOS, WR/TE (PPR) use receiving SOS and RB (std/ppr) use a combination of rush, pass and receiving SOS. Std uses 75/25 rush/pass while PPR uses 60/40 rush/receiving. This is due to receiving SOS including one point per reception.
2010: Per game fantasy points in 2010
2-yr Avg: Straight two-year per game average
Post-Draft 2011 TE Rankings
In the table below you’ll find my initial TE rankings for the 2011 season. For each player, I’ll list their strength of schedule (SOS), their 2010 points per game output adjusted for the 2011 SOS (i.e. if their 2010 performance was adjusted for their 2011 SOS) and their straight two-year average (schedule bias not removed). Keep in mind these aren’t actual projections, just additional info and the likely order that I’d draft these players given what we know now. Things will change as some of these free agents find homes for the season. Keep in mind these are rankings for standard (non-PPR) leagues.
– I’ve seen a few fantasy experts lump Antonio Gates in with the next three or four TEs, but Gates is in a tier all by himself. When he’s healthy, no TE is better. His 13.8 unadjusted PPG in 2010 was 4.2 points better than the next guy (Jason Witten). I suspect that Value Based Drafting (VBD) will tell us to draft Gates in the third round, but he’s been going in the fourth and is a tremendous value there. The only issue is his durability. He missed six games last season, but played 15+ in seven of his eight seasons.
– Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley and Dallas Clark make up the next tier. Witten is more dependable, but Finley has more upside. He averaged 5.3-75-0.25 in the four full games before he injured his knee in 2010. Those are TE2 numbers. I’d be careful with Clark. He’s 31 and has had injury issues in the past, including last year’s wrist problems. Still, in the 5th round he’s a nice weapon at TE.
– I’d put Davis, Graham, Daniels, Gronkowski, Z. Miller and Lewis in the next tier. Davis has a much tougher projected schedule, but the arrival of head coach Jim Harbaugh should offset that.
– Graham was dynamite down the stretch for the Saints, and with Jeremy Shockey gone, he should get plenty of targets in 2011. He posted 26-307-5 over the final eight games of the season, which are TE5 numbers (and don’t take into account the uptick in targets he should see with Shockey gone).
– Daniels got off to a slow start in 2010, but came on at the end of the year after missing five games in the middle of the season. He averaged 5.5-68-0.5 in the last four games, which was enough to convince the Texans to re-sign him to a four-year deal.
– Gronkowski was terrific for the Patriots in his rookie season and there are those that believe that he’s elite. He’s a threat to finish in the Top 5, but just when you think you can predict the Patriots’ offense, they go another direction. Still, I am probably higher on him than most, and given his 8th-round ADP, he should be a nice value on draft day.
– Zach Miller was my sleeper pick last season and he got off to a strong start with 33 catches in his first seven games before a foot injury hobbled him midseason. He didn’t seem to get healthy until the final four weeks, when he caught 22 more passes. He’s a free agent this summer but should re-up with the Raiders for the 2011 season.
– After Marcedes Lewis, who should be good once again as long as David Garrard is under center, there isn’t much difference between the #11 TE and the #21 TE, as Chris Cooley and Jared Cook could easily swap spots by season’s end. For that reason, I’d try to grab one of the Top 10 guys. Lewis is going the latest (in the 9th), so if you find yourself without a TE after he’s gone, it may pay to continue to load up on talent at RB and WR (or work your QBBC) and wait to grab a pair of TEs later on in the draft.
– We’re already hearing that Josh McDaniels is tweaking his offense to feature the TE more, which makes sense since the Rams drafted the talented Lance Kendricks to give Sam Bradford a target over the middle. Along with Cook, Kendricks is shaping up to be a nice sleeper at the TE position.
The fantasy impact of the second round
I covered the first round in great detail yesterday, and with two more rounds of picks to evaluate, there’s a lot to talk about. From a fantasy perspective, the deeper we get into the draft the tougher it is to predict which picks will make an immediate impact, because…well…they’re typically not as good as those players picked in the first round. (That’s the whole point of a draft, right?)
Even so, there will be a few players taken in second or third round (or even later) that will show up on fantasy big boards by midseason, so let’s pull out our divining rods, point them at the second round and see if we can identify a few sleepers.
Who will be throwing to A.J. Green? Andy Dalton.
Dalton is undersized but is a hard worker and possesses great leadership skills. Whether or not this translates to success is to be determined. Hard workers can go on to have great NFL careers (just look at Tom Brady, a former sixth round pick), but they have to have a certain level of physical ability to stick. His arm strength is adequate and his accuracy is good. He’ll need to improve his accuracy even further if he’s going to be a full-time starter in the NFL.
From A.J. Green’s point of view, it’s good to see the Bengals address the QB position relatively early in the draft. But second round QBs do not have a great history of success. For every Drew Brees or Brett Favre, there are ten Kellen Clemens or Quincy Carters. Dalton is a mature fifth-year senior so he has a shot. How quickly he gets up to speed will impact what kind of fantasy seasons we see from Green, Jerome Simpson and even Cedric Benson.
Here’s a look at his QB Camp with John Gruden. He seems like a good kid.
Early 2011 Strength of Schedule: TEs (PPR)
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DT | RB (PPR) | WR (PPR) | TE (PPR)
Below is a full season point-per-reception (PPR) SOS table for the tight end position. Here is what each column means:
2011: The total SOS (excluding W17 since a vast majority of leagues do not play in W17) for 2011.
%CH: The percent change from 2010. A positive number means that the team has an easier schedule, while a negative number means that the schedule projects to be tougher.
P3: The team’s average SOS for a W14-16 playoff.
P2: The team’s average SOS for a W15-16 playoff.
If a particular matchup is listed in green, it means that it is at least 3% better than the average for that week. If it’s listed in red, it’s 3% worse than the mean.
I use SOS as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players or as a way to rank players within a tier. It’s important to note that this is just preliminary SOS. Things will change as the draft and free agency occur, and they’ll change week by week during the season as some defenses get better while others get worse. Typically, a defense won’t go from terrible to great (vice versa) in one year, so if you’re expecting a great matchup from your TE in W16, there’s a very good chance that it will be at worst mediocre at that point in the season.
Click the table to see a larger version.
Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley and Brandon Pettigrew were three tight ends that fared significantly better in PPR leagues than in standard leagues in 2010. Coincidentally, they all finished five spots higher in adjusted fantasy points per game in the PPR format.
While Cooley’s schedule is about the same, both Gonzalez and Pettigrew project to see a significantly easier schedule in 2011. In fact, Gonzo’s schedule looks like it will improve as much as any TE this season. Considering he finished as 2010′s TE6 in overall PPR scoring, it seems strange that he’s going TE15 in early drafts. He’s not likely to go out and post Top 5 numbers, but you could do a lot worse in the 10th or 11th rounds if you need a TE after loading up on other positions.
Most pundits seem to be down on both Cooley and Pettigrew heading into 2011, though I think both players are pretty good values considering where they’re going in drafts (TE12 and TE11, respectively). Both players have QB questions: Will Matthew Stafford target Pettigrew as much as Shaun Hill did? Who will be QBing the Redskins and will they look to Cooley like Donovan McNabb did? Will Fred Davis finally overtake him? These are legitimate questions, but I don’t think fantasy owners should write either player off at this point.
Oh, and I like Jared Cook.
Click here to download a CSV file of this data.
If you like this kind of information, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@FantasyShrink) and “like” the site on Facebook. I will be publishing a ton of content over the next few months and throughout the season.
Early 2011 Strength of Schedule: TEs
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DT | RB (PPR) | WR (PPR) | TE (PPR)
Below is a full season SOS table for the tight end position. Here is what each column means:
2011: The total SOS (excluding W17 since a vast majority of leagues do not play in W17) for 2011.
%CH: The percent change from 2010. A positive number means that the team has an easier schedule, while a negative number means that the schedule projects to be tougher.
P3: The team’s average SOS for a W14-16 playoff.
P2: The team’s average SOS for a W15-16 playoff.
If a particular matchup is listed in green, it means that it is at least 3% better than the average for that week. If it’s listed in red, it’s 3% worse than the mean.
I use SOS as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players or as a way to rank players within a tier. It’s important to note that this is just preliminary SOS. Things will change as the draft and free agency occur, and they’ll change week by week during the season as some defenses get better while others get worse. Typically, a defense won’t go from terrible to great (vice versa) in one year, so if you’re expecting a great matchup from your TE in W16, there’s a very good chance that it will be at worst mediocre at that point in the season.
(Click on the table to see a bigger version. You can download the data in CSV format if you click the link below.)
A few takeaways:
– Of the Top 5 TEs (in terms of current ADP) — Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten and Vernon Davis — only Davis appears to have a significantly more difficult schedule in 2011 as compared to 2010. He projects to have eight tough matchups versus only two easy matchups through 16 weeks. Depending on who is QB’ing the 49ers, this might be a reason to exercise caution with Davis.
– The next group of TEs — Jimmy Graham, Owen Daniels, Zach Miller, Marcedes Lewis and Rob Gronkowski — won’t see much of a change in schedule difficulty in 2011. Graham is a real threat to crack the Top 5 given his late-season performance (3.3-38-0.63 over the last eight games, TE7 numbers) along with the departure of Jeremy Shockey. He’s going in the 6th round on average in the #Draftmaster series, which means he’ll probably be a 7th-8th round pick in your local draft.
– Jared Cook is in position for a breakthrough season, assuming the Titans can find a decent QB to throw him the ball. Over the last six games he averaged 4.0-49-0.17, which are fringe starter numbers. If he’s able to find the endzone a little more often and becomes the Titan’s de facto WR2, he is a threat to finish in the Top 10.
– Don’t sleep on Zach Miller. He struggled through injuries midseason, but started the season strong and finished it with 22 catches in his final four games. His schedule looks favorable as well. If you miss out on Gates, Witten, Finley and Clark, I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend Miller, Graham, Marcedes Lewis or even Owen Daniels, who finally started to look like his old self towards the end of the season. Throwing Kellen Winslow (TE11 in adjusted PPG) and Rob Gronkowski (TE7 in adjusted PPG) into the mix, and there appear to be 11 pretty solid TEs available this season.
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